NFL Wild Card Sunday Odds & Picks
The Payments have began quick at house this season, averaging a league-high 19.7 factors per sport within the first half. In the meantime, the Dolphins protection has surrendered 18.6 factors per sport within the first half on the highway, which is the second most.
Buffalo has scored no less than 14 factors in six of its eight house video games, and Miami allowed no less than 17 in seven of 9 highway video games.
With Skylar Thompson behind heart, it will likely be tough for the Dolphins to maintain drives, and the Payments are nonetheless feeding off the constructive information surrounding Damar Hamlin’s restoration and are an excellent guess to as soon as once more come out robust in entrance of their house crowd.
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Not solely are the Vikings six spots decrease than the Giants in total DVOA (twenty seventh vs. twenty first), however they acquired outgained 445-353 by New York and have been fortunate to flee with a 27-24 win in Week 15.
The Giants are probably the most well-coached groups within the league, an enormous motive they went 6-5-1 straight up as an underdog this season. After resting starters and making ready a full two weeks for the Vikings, a rematch ought to give the Giants an edge – simply take a look at how the Vikings carried out within the second assembly in opposition to the Lions and Packers versus the primary.
- MIN 23, GB 7 in Week 1; GB 41, MIN 17 in Week 17
- MIN 28, DET 24 in Week 3; DET 34, MIN 23 in Week 14
Though each of the second matchups have been on the highway for the Vikings, we’re speaking a few 27.5-point swing on common, which is 10 occasions greater than what you’d count on from home-field benefit alone.
The Giants protection is undervalued on this spot. For the primary time all season, they may have cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, security Xavier McKinney and defensive linemen Leonard Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeaux wholesome unexpectedly.
The Vikings’ energy is their offense, so even an incremental enchancment from the Giants protection in comparison with the final matchup is sufficient to forestall Minnesota from pulling off one other fortunate win.
Per our Motion Labs knowledge, Wild Card canines of seven or much less are 29-18-1 (62%) ATS since 2003.
Smith returned from harm to run a route on 34% of dropbacks — in comparison with 43% for T.J. Hockenson — final week in a sport wherein the Vikings pulled their starters. But it surely’s unlikely Smith cuts into Hockenson’s enjoying time with the whole lot on the road, particularly after Hockenson caught 13 passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns in opposition to the Giants in Week 16.
On common, Vikings tight ends have mixed for a 95% route participation charge this season. Hockenson accounted for 80%, leaving solely 15% for everybody else, which means it might take a drastic enhance in heavy personnel or discount in Hockenson’s snaps for Smith to play a big position.
Regardless of the enjoying time he noticed within the common season finale, Smith nonetheless managed solely 14 yards on three catches. His aDOT was simply 2.7 in that sport and is simply 5.1 for the season, which might permit Smith to catch 2-3 passes on this matchup and nonetheless go underneath.
I’ve Smith projected for 1.4 catches and 12 yards. That is playable to underneath 12.5 yards.
Mixon compiled solely 68 scrimmage yards on 16 touches in opposition to the Ravens final week and is prone to battle once more.
On the bottom, the Ravens have allowed simply 684 yards on 192 carries (3.56 YPC) and held Mixon to 27 yards final week. And Mixon’s receiving manufacturing might take successful if he has to remain in to go shield extra with the Bengals lacking a number of starters alongside the offensive line.
It’s value noting Mixon’s utilization has been trending down with Samaje Perine enjoying nicely, and it’s no assure to reverse within the playoffs.
Mixon is averaging a 75% share of non-QB designed carries and a 50% route participation charge on the season, however over the previous 4 video games, he’s seen 69% of designed runs and a 44% route participation charge.
Even after I mission Mixon utilizing his season averages, he nonetheless fails to crack 80 mixed dashing and receiving yards. I’d play this to 78.5.
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